I've often wondered whether there was a selection bias at work here as well. Traditionally, one factor that probably suppressed leaguewide FT% from being what it could be if the league was just comprised of the best shooters on the planet was the fact that teams were also selecting for big men who didn't necessarily have shooting range because their height allowed them to play so close to the basket. (And in fact, those players tended to draw contact -- and thus be fouled -- at a higher rate than perimeter shooters!) So a not-insignificant share of all FTs were taken by players who were, at best, selected for reasons other than shooting skill.
Perhaps it's no coincidence that league FT% has actually gone up in the past 5-10 years, as some baseline amount of shooting skill has become table stakes to play in the league, even as a big man. The league average this season, 78.4%, is the highest EVER in a single season, on pace to break the record of 78.2% from last year. The past 5 seasons make up the 5 best FT% seasons in NBA history:
Some of that probably involves better, more scientific ways to practice shooting FTs. But some of it is probably due to the fact that the league selects for shooters a lot more than it did just a decade ago.
Great point! FT% finally seems like it's on the upswing, though it's still not reached the automaticity you'd expect given how otherwise skilled these guys are. WNBA historically FT% is slightly better (76.7%) but also generally getting better the past few years
Really cool article - good stuff.
I've often wondered whether there was a selection bias at work here as well. Traditionally, one factor that probably suppressed leaguewide FT% from being what it could be if the league was just comprised of the best shooters on the planet was the fact that teams were also selecting for big men who didn't necessarily have shooting range because their height allowed them to play so close to the basket. (And in fact, those players tended to draw contact -- and thus be fouled -- at a higher rate than perimeter shooters!) So a not-insignificant share of all FTs were taken by players who were, at best, selected for reasons other than shooting skill.
Perhaps it's no coincidence that league FT% has actually gone up in the past 5-10 years, as some baseline amount of shooting skill has become table stakes to play in the league, even as a big man. The league average this season, 78.4%, is the highest EVER in a single season, on pace to break the record of 78.2% from last year. The past 5 seasons make up the 5 best FT% seasons in NBA history:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html#stats::25
Some of that probably involves better, more scientific ways to practice shooting FTs. But some of it is probably due to the fact that the league selects for shooters a lot more than it did just a decade ago.
Great point! FT% finally seems like it's on the upswing, though it's still not reached the automaticity you'd expect given how otherwise skilled these guys are. WNBA historically FT% is slightly better (76.7%) but also generally getting better the past few years