Oh, I just remembered. What had prompted that interview and that story was the introduction of replay. A theory was that, because the umps were suddenly conscious of the replay, and how it could reveal they had missed a call--however innocently--it was causing them to anticipate too often. And, yes, it's a whole different thing than the home-plate umps seeing a ball or strike.
I stumbled onto what possibly is another factor a few years ago when I interviewed a vision expert who said that umpires, on really close calls such an infield plays to first, could be susceptible to anticipating what was going to happen a split-second before it happened.
Fascinating! Fortunately, baseball now has replay for bang-bang plays in the field. Alas, balls and strikes are still in the judgment domain of the HP ump
Oh, I just remembered. What had prompted that interview and that story was the introduction of replay. A theory was that, because the umps were suddenly conscious of the replay, and how it could reveal they had missed a call--however innocently--it was causing them to anticipate too often. And, yes, it's a whole different thing than the home-plate umps seeing a ball or strike.
Brilliant again, Zach.
I stumbled onto what possibly is another factor a few years ago when I interviewed a vision expert who said that umpires, on really close calls such an infield plays to first, could be susceptible to anticipating what was going to happen a split-second before it happened.
Fascinating! Fortunately, baseball now has replay for bang-bang plays in the field. Alas, balls and strikes are still in the judgment domain of the HP ump
Fascinating Zach, and kudos for linking to the late and great Daniel Khanamen and Amos Tversky's brilliant work!
thanks! invariably, so many great, relatable behavioral observations can be traced back to them